Below, EPI economists offer their initial insights on the jobs report released this morning, which showed 261,000 jobs added in October.
From EPI senior economist, Elise Gould (@eliselgould):
Read the full Twitter thread here.
In October, there were notable gains in Education and health services, Profession and business services, and Leisure and hospitality. And, finally, finally!, some signs of life in public sector employment. pic.twitter.com/Z7uVFVP55D
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) November 4, 2022
While the public sector jobs gains in October are welcome news—particularly seeing signs of life in local government employment—state and local government employment continues to barely budge over the last year as private-sector employment is now 1.0% above pre-pandemic levels. pic.twitter.com/ThZLuP4p2Y
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) November 4, 2022
“There is substantial disinflation in the pipeline that will allow inflation to normalize in coming months even if the labor market remains strong,” writes @joshbivens_DC. Policymakers can’t ignore the latest deceleration in wage growth for a soft landing. https://t.co/xBZjLnMaIp
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) November 4, 2022
As overall unemployment ticked up, Hispanic unemployment retreated from it’s historic low in Sept, rising to 4.2% in Oct. Data are volatile but all groups ticked up last month. I hope that will reverse in coming months if policymakers let the labor market expansion continue. pic.twitter.com/vQcgDOCjYL
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) November 4, 2022
Overall, today’s report was fairly strong with notable signs of cooling, particularly in wages. Wage growth over the last there months is consistent with long term productivity and inflation targets and a reasonable claw back of labor share (as corporate profits remain high). pic.twitter.com/44vlt0yqLS
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) November 4, 2022
To be clear, the most recent three-month wage growth of 3.9% is consistent with trend productivity and 2% inflation and allows for a very reasonable claw back of labor share. At that rate, it would take maybe 4-5 years to restore labor share of income to pre-covid levels. pic.twitter.com/XVZiaAzehs
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) November 4, 2022
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