Inflation came in at 16.8% in November, which was up from October’s 15.3%. November’s figure represented the highest inflation rate since March 2003 and was driven by higher price pressures for non-food goods, services and food items.
The trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 13.1% in November (October: 12.3%).
Lastly, consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 1.25% in November over the previous month, following the 1.28% rise logged in October. November’s result marked the weakest reading since August.
On the outlook, Vlad Ionita, analyst at Erste Bank, commented:
“We maintain our end-2022 CPI forecast of 16.1% y/y, but a slight upward revision once we gather more data is not ruled out. For the next months, we see a plateau with a small downward trend until March next year, when inflation should break the 16% mark in yearly terms and start decelerating faster. We forecast end-2023 inflation at 8.7% y/y. We see core inflation peaking in January/February 2023 around 15% y/y and remaining above headline inflation over the entire forecast horizon.”
Our panelists are currently assessing the latest release and a new consensus will be published on 10 January 2023.