Whether It Is Trump Or DeSantis The GOP Has A Big 2024 Problem

A new poll shows that Republicans are about to split, and Trump has more support than the next three candidates combined.

The latest Fox News Poll via Fox News:

Republican primary voters were read a list of 15 announced and potential candidates for the 2024 nomination. Trump tops the list with 43%, followed by Ron DeSantis at 28%, Nikki Haley and Mike Pence at 7% each, and Greg Abbott and Liz Cheney at 2% each.

Among Republican primary voters, men, women, those under and over age 45, and those without a college degree all put Trump first and DeSantis second. The Florida governor is ahead among those with a college degree and those who think Biden was legitimately elected, and the two are within a point or so among suburban voters and those with higher incomes.

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Fox tried to frame their poll as Trump looking formidable and Biden facing doubts, as they ignored the obvious problem that 57% of Republicans surveyed would vote for someone other than Trump. Fox News has gotten behind Ron DeSantis, but he, Nikki Haley, and Mike Pence combined don’t have as much support as Trump.

The problem that the Republican Party is staring straight in the face is that they are looking at a replay of the 2016 GOP primary. The big difference is that Trump won’t face Hillary Clinton in 2024. He’ll be up against President Biden, who already beat him in 2020, and might beat him again by an even larger margin if they were matched up again.

The Republican Party hasn’t figured out how to get rid of Trump or move his supporters away from him. Ron DeSantis appeals to Republicans who are a minority in the primary. The issue is that there do not appear to be enough non-Trump Republicans to win.

If Republicans repeat 2016, it won’t matter who wins, they will be a divided party facing an incumbent president with a unified party that seems determined to win in 2024.